Can Solar Energy Replace Fossil Fuels? Here is What the Future Holds

Fossil fuels are formed by natural processes that take place over hundreds of millions of years deep beneath the Earth’s surface. Because they take too long to regenerate, fossil fuels are considered a non-renewable resource. 

Yet today, despite growing concerns about climate change and the global energy crisis, we remain highly dependent on these finite resources. Around 80 percent of all global energy demand is still met by burning fossil fuels. But we are consuming them too fast. At the current rate of consumption, fossil fuel reserves are expected to run out in less than 100 years.

Then what?

Maybe it’s time we woke up and started looking up for our energy needs instead of looking down.

If we could fully harness the sun’s clean, free energy, we wouldn’t have to drill for polluting fossil fuels anymore. Although solar technology is still evolving, it is becoming increasingly cost-effective, and more people are recognizing the advantages of solar power.

This article will explore whether solar energy can realistically replace fossil fuels and take into account the benefits, challenges, and future prospects of this critical energy transition.

The role of fossil fuels in modern society

Fossil fuels are energy-rich substances like coal, oil, and natural gas, formed deep within the Earth over millions of years from decayed plants and animals. These resources have powered the world for well over a century and shaped modern life as we know it. 

In fact, since the Industrial Revolution, fossil fuels have been the primary source of energy, contributing to about 84% of the global energy supply as of 2022. From the electricity in our homes to the fuel in our cars, fossil fuels have been the backbone of our energy system.

Today, despite all the efforts to move away from them, we are still heavily reliant on these non-renewable resources. Coal, oil, and natural gas still supply power to major industries and transport. 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2021, 31% of the world’s energy came from oil, 27% from coal, and 25% from natural gas, illustrating just how entrenched these resources are in global energy systems. This is partly because of existing infrastructure and the lower costs of extracting and using these energy sources.

However, this reliance comes at a steep cost. The burning of fossil fuels releases large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. According to some estimates, fossil fuels contribute to around 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Global Carbon Project, in 2022, fossil fuel combustion was responsible for emitting approximately 36.3 gigatons of CO₂ into the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming. 

Additionally and alarmingly, air pollution linked to fossil fuel use causes about 8.7 million premature deaths worldwide each year, according to a 2021 study by Harvard University.

In addition, the depletion of fossil fuel reserves is a growing concern. The world’s remaining proven reserves of oil are estimated to last around 50 years at current extraction rates, while coal reserves may last 130 years, and natural gas around 52 years, according to BP’s 2023 Energy Outlook. As we deplete these resources, finding new reserves becomes increasingly difficult and expensive, as well as poses serious risks to both the environment and long-term economic stability.

If we could harness the sun’s clean and free energy, we wouldn’t have to drill for polluting fossil fuels. Even though solar technology is still in its early stages, it starts to be increasingly cost-effective and a lot more people start to be aware of the advantages it brings.

How solar energy works?

At its core, solar power technology harnesses the power of the sun to generate electricity. This process begins with solar panels made of photovoltaic cells. When sunlight hits these cells, they convert solar radiation into direct current (DC) electricity. An inverter then transforms DC electricity into alternating current (AC) – the type of electricity used in homes and businesses. 

There are three main types of solar energy technologies currently in use. The most common are photovoltaic (PV) systems. You can see these on rooftops or in solar farms. These systems convert sunlight directly into electricity and are widely adopted for both residential and commercial applications.

Solar thermal systems, on the other hand, use sunlight to heat a fluid that produces steam to drive a turbine, generating electricity indirectly. These systems are often employed in large-scale industrial projects. It could be for example heating water for factories or generating power for entire cities.

Finally, concentrated solar power (CSP) systems use mirrors or lenses to focus sunlight onto a small area and produce high temperatures that generate steam to drive turbines. CSP is used primarily in utility-scale projects in sunny regions, such as parts of the U.S. Southwest or North Africa.

Solar energy has seen remarkable growth in recent years. In 2022, global solar capacity reached over 1,000 gigawatts, which is a significant increase from just 41 GW in 2010. 

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar power accounted for nearly 60% of all new renewable energy installations globally in 2021. China leads the world in solar capacity, with over 393 GW installed, followed by the European Union (200 GW) and the United States (113 GW). 

Projections suggest that by 2030, solar power could provide up to 20% of global electricity, driven by declining costs and increasing adoption of renewable energy policies.

Comparing solar energy and fossil fuels

When it comes to energy efficiency and cost, fossil fuels have a clear advantage…for now. Fossil fuel production today costs much less than any renewable energy generation. That’s because the fossil fuel industry has developed over time, and its technology and infrastructure are more advanced than any other type of energy resource. 

This is one of the main reasons why governments and big corporations still prefer fossil fuels over clean solar energy. Solar requires bigger investment at the moment.

In terms of energy efficiency, solar panels currently convert up to 22% of the sunlight they receive into electricity. Fossil fuels convert roughly 33% to 40% of their stored energy into usable power. 

While fossil fuels appear more efficient, the energy lost through extraction, transportation, and conversion processes is significant. Solar technology, on the other hand, has seen consistent improvements. Just recently, scientists found a way to mimic the structure of butterfly wings to enhance the efficiency of solar cells, potentially doubling their output. However, it will take some time before this breakthrough reaches commercial markets.

Despite the falling costs of renewable energy in recent years, solar energy still produces a very insignificant percentage (not even five percent) of the world’s electricity. While it may seem like an impossible mission to completely eliminate fossil fuels from our energy production in the foreseeable future, there is a reason for hope. Solar energy is steadily becoming more affordable, and long-term investments in solar panels can offset initial costs over time, thanks to lower maintenance requirements and free energy from the sun.

The environmental impact of these two energy sources could not be more different. Fossil fuels are responsible for at least 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. They contribute to climate change, air pollution, and environmental degradation. In contrast, solar energy is a clean and renewable source, emitting zero carbon during operation. 

If solar energy were to replace fossil fuels on a large scale, it could drastically reduce CO₂ emissions and other pollutants that damage ecosystems and human health.

One of the most compelling differences between solar energy and fossil fuels is resource availability. Fossil fuels are finite. As mentioned earlier, the world’s remaining oil, coal, and natural gas reserves will eventually run out—some as soon as within the next 50 to 130 years, according to various estimates. 

On the other hand, sunlight is abundant and effectively limitless. The Earth receives more solar energy in one hour than humanity uses in an entire year. This makes solar energy one of the most sustainable options for the future.

However, solar energy faces challenges of its own. One of the major drawbacks of solar panels right now is their intermittency—solar power generation is dependent on weather and daylight hours, which means it isn’t always available when needed. Solar energy storage technologies (batteries) are improving but remain costly and limited in capacity. 

Additionally, large-scale solar installations require vast land areas, which can pose logistical issues in densely populated regions.

All energy transitions, such as fossil fuels, take many decades to happen. If you think about it, it took more than 50 years for coal to substitute wood as the world’s leading energy resource and an additional 50 years for oil to overtake coal. Therefore, it’s normal to expect a similar development for solar energy. 

But the life-changing moment when solar will replace fossil fuels may be closer than we think. In 2016, solar power was in fact the fastest growing source of new energy in the world, overtaking the growth of all other energy forms for the first time.

Can solar energy replace fossil fuels entirely?

The question of whether solar energy can replace fossil fuels is a pressing one, especially as the world grapples with dwindling natural resources. While the potential of solar energy is undeniable, the path to fully replacing fossil fuels is complex and requires addressing both technological and structural challenges.

Current solar capacity

Globally, solar energy capacity has seen rapid growth, but it still falls short of meeting the world’s energy needs. As of 2022, solar power provided about 4.5% of the world’s total electricity generation, with installed capacity reaching approximately 1,000 gigawatts (GW). 

The largest producers of solar energy are China, the United States, and the European Union, with China alone accounting for nearly 40% of the global total. In 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that solar power was the fastest-growing source of electricity, adding 191 GW of new capacity globally, a 25% increase from the previous year.

While these numbers are encouraging, the total global energy demand in 2022 was about 27,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), and solar’s contribution was only a small fraction of that. 

To put it in perspective, meeting the current global electricity demand with solar alone would require scaling capacity up to more than 30,000 GW, an immense challenge considering the pace of solar infrastructure development and the existing reliance on fossil fuels.

Potential for large-scale adoption

A major drawback of solar panels right now is the efficiency to convert sunlight into electricity. The best solar panels have an efficiency rating of up to 22 percent. The rest of the energy is not entering the circuit, so it’s lost. 

Advances in solar technology, like bifacial panels (which capture sunlight from both sides) and perovskite solar cells, promise to increase efficiency beyond the current 22% limit. 

Just recently, scientists discovered a better way to absorb sunlight in solar panels that could double their efficiency. Some experimental models have achieved efficiencies of up to 47.1% in lab settings. In addition, solar concentrated power (CSP), which uses mirrors to focus sunlight and generate heat, is becoming more cost-competitive in regions with abundant sunlight, such as North Africa and the Middle East.

One of the biggest hurdles for large-scale adoption of solar energy is intermittency—the fact that solar power is only available when the sun is shining. However, storage solutions, such as lithium-ion batteries, are improving rapidly. 

For example, the Tesla Megapack is already being deployed in grid-scale projects, like Australia’s Hornsdale Power Reserve, which provides backup power and stabilizes the grid. Moreover, long-duration energy storage technologies, such as green hydrogen, where solar energy is used to split water molecules and store hydrogen as fuel, offer promising solutions to store energy for long periods, even in colder or less sunny months.

Government policies and subsidies also play a critical role in driving solar adoption. Countries like Germany, the U.S., and China have enacted feed-in tariffs, tax credits, and subsidies to incentivize solar investments. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, for example, includes $369 billion in subsidies for renewable energy, with a focus on expanding solar power. This kind of policy support is essential for making solar more competitive with fossil fuels and encouraging widespread adoption.

Transitioning from fossil fuels

Replacing fossil fuels entirely with solar energy won’t happen overnight, but a gradual transition is possible and already underway. One of the most effective ways solar energy is reducing our dependence on fossil fuels is by offsetting the need for coal-fired electricity. 

For instance, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that by 2030, renewables (led by solar and wind) could cover 70% of new power generation capacity. This shift is already evident in countries like Germany, where solar power is part of a broader strategy to phase out coal by 2038.

In regions with abundant sunlight, solar energy has become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar has dropped dramatically—solar photovoltaic (PV) costs fell by 89% between 2010 and 2022. In some parts of the world, solar energy costs as little as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh), making it cheaper than new coal or gas plants. Countries such as India and Chile have reached “grid parity,” where solar energy is now cheaper than traditional energy sources.

However, the full transition to solar energy depends not only on technology but also on infrastructure. Grid modernization is essential to accommodate the variability of solar power. Smart grids and investments in transmission infrastructure will be critical in balancing supply and demand, especially in regions that rely heavily on fossil fuels today.

In the long term, solar energy can gradually reduce our dependence on fossil fuels through sector coupling—using solar power to electrify transportation (electric vehicles), heating, and industrial processes. By electrifying these sectors and coupling them with solar energy, we can drastically cut emissions from oil and gas. The shift to solar-powered transportation alone could significantly reduce the global demand for fossil fuels, especially as electric vehicles become more affordable and widely adopted.

How you can make the transition to solar energy?

As research continues to bring improvements in the solar technology, processing and distribution networks are gradually decreasing the price of solar and when the balance between cost and benefit will come in our favor, fossil fuels will become just a thing of the past.

Our economy is based on energy, and assumes energy is going to always be consistent, easily available and affordable. Shifting from non-renewable fuels will also require us, the people, to strongly support the change. 

We are living in a world of constant, accelerating technological change and our attitude toward technology was always positive. It’s time to also look beyond the new forms of social media and new applications. It’s time to look behind the scenes for a moment and choose the sustainable path for the future.

A great way to speed up the transition to solar is by introducing solar power to our everyday lives. Here are few suggestions:

• Install solar panels on your house. They are affordable and you can take advantages of many tax credits to help you decrease the installation costs.

• Consider powering your RV or off-grid cabin with solar panels.

• Carry your own portable solar charging station with you wherever you go. You can power your smartphone, tablet, or any other USB compatible devices with free solar energy. Small portable panels are cheap and available in many different shapes and sizes. For example, the Anker PowerPort 21W portable solar charger can recharge an iPhone under the sun in less than two hours.

Global warming, sea level rise, floods and pollution are the real price of today’s modern life. Fossil fuels are the major cause of climate change. The idea of business as usual cannot be accepted anymore. The health of our environment requires this transition to happen as quickly as possible. After all, this is not about saving the environment but saving ourselves. We depend on environment for our existence.